Lori & Nathan  Copeland

Lori & Nathan Copeland

Sales Representative

RE/MAX Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

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Northumberland County Real Estate Update 2018 Year End

2018 Year End - Market Update
Nathan (and Nate) Copeland, Sales Reps. RE/Max Rouge River 905-376-0092

Happy New Year and Welcome to 2019! 

After an exciting and somewhat tumultuous market for the previous two years, the latter half of 2018 certainly presented what can best be termed as a "return to normal".  There were a few indicators that demonstrated a market decline, and a few more that showed a slight improvement.

Year End Statistics 2018 - The statistics below reflect all real estate transactions in Northumberland County for 2018, compared with 2017 & 2016 - specifically residential sales.  The statistics below do not take into account commercial, farm, vacant land and recreational sales (as generated from the statistics available through the Northumberland Hill Association of Realtors). 

YEAR TO DATE 2018 2017 % Diff From 2017 2016 (for reference)
GROSS SALES $604.4mil $785.8mil -23.1% $676.4mil
# OF SALES 1473 1995 -26.1% 2097
# OF LISTINGS 2421 2645 -8.40% 2595
AVG SALES PRICE 410,578 394,265 4.10% 322,737
SUCCESS RATIO 60.8% 75.4% -14.6% 80.8%


Below are a few of my personal observations from the above statistics:

  1. The first statistic that best tells the story of 2018 is the number of sales.  During 2016 & 2017 we saw a huge surge in demand coming from the Durham Region, which continued into the early part of 2018.  As the inventory in Durham increased in the spring, the demand began falling off.
  2. The second statistic that jumps out to me is the increase of the average residential sales price.  I believe it reflects the overall quality of life our community represents.  Though demand fell off, buyers still see the relative value of our community in comparison to communities to the west.
  3. The success ratio reflects the Sellers slower recognition in the change in demand versus the Buyers.  Many homes hit the market last year with list prices that more reflected the increases of 2016/17 (15-25%) and those homes tended to stay on the market longer, enduring 2 and 3 listing cycles.
  4. Other observations not reflected in the stats above:
    • The number of Condo sales fell at exactly the rate as detached homes.
    • Vacant land and commercial real estate sales fared slightly better than residential sales.
    • Luxury homes ($1mil+) actually increased, from 14 sales in 2017 to 20 sales in 2018.

Moving Forward – With interest rates remaining at reasonable rates and the economy continuing to be robust, it is reasonable to assume  we will experience a fairly normal market in 2019.  Now that we have had several months to adjust to "returning to normal", I would expect Buyers and Sellers to be a little more aligned in terms of list price and purchase price.  Sellers will alter their approach to the price of their homes in the Durham Region and expect to see the same as they shop for homes in our area.

Featured Listing
Boutique Country Inn with exceptional banquet and wedding facilities located on the shores of Lake Ontario in Brighton.  Also features 55 model home sites and a very strong return:   https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/20081802/hospitality-unknown-116-cedardale-road-brighton 

As always, I trust you find the above information useful, and remember, I am never too busy for your referrals!




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