Market Update 2017 Year End

Northumberland Real Estate

Year End for 2017 - Market Update
Nathan Copeland, Sales Rep. Coldwell Banker RMR 905-376-0092

Happy New Year to everyone and best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2018!

2017 was an extraordinary year for Northumberland Real Estate! In first quarter (Q1), we saw a strong sellers market driving demand and pricing at an unprecedented pace. In the late spring, the Federal Government introduced their 15 point plan to cool the market, followed by the banks applying a more stringent “stress test” for new mortgages, thus creating a fairly substantial correction. Although the correction cooled the demand to some extent, the overall listing and sales stats were in line with previous years, and we ended up with a very strong increase in the average home price.

Year End Statistics - The statistics below reflect all real estate transactions in Northumberland County for 2017, compared with 2016 - including single family homes, condos, cottages, commercial, farms, etc. (as generated from the statistics from the Northumberland Hill Association of Realtors.

REAL ESTATE SALES	2016	2017	Change
Total Sales Volume in Northumberland Co.	$497.4 mil	$566.3 mil	+13.9%
Number of Sales/Transactions	1438	1350	-6.1%
Number of Total New Listings	1984	2004	-1%
Average Sales Price	345,382	$419,499	21.28%
Number of Sales to Listings, as a % (success ratio)	72.5%	67.4%	-5.1%

For an extended perspective, below illustrates the growth of the average price in Northumberland over the past 5 years:

2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
274,468	282,865	306,909	345,892	419,499
0%	3.1%	8.5%	12.7%	21.3%

Below are a few of my personal observations from the above statistics:

1. Though the average price increased by 21.3% in 2017 over 2016, we saw the number of new listings virtually flat, and the listing to sales ratio actually drop by 5.1%.

2. The average price was largely driven by the demand coming from the Durham region as those local buyers were finding it difficult to compete in an overheated market. Virtually every listing in the Durham Region for the first half of the 2017 received multiple offers, and sold for well over the list price.

3. Northumberland County also experienced multiple offers, and sales over list price in the first half of the year, though not quite as extreme as the rest of the GTA.

4. Capped by a stellar 2017, home owners in Northumberland County should be delighted to see the average home value increase by 53% over the past 5 years.

5. With a 21.3% increase in average price, Northumberland outpaced most of the Durham Markets; Durham Overall (19%), Ajax (17%), Clarington (20%), Oshawa (19%), Pickering (21%) and Whitby (20%).

Moving Forward – Barring unforeseen circumstances, I believe the market has stabilized and we will see steady and balanced market activity for 2018. Our community will continue to experience strong demand for those GTA buyers looking for the quality of lifestyle offered in Northumberland. The country, luxury and waterfront market will continue to drive high demand judging by the substantial increase (78%) in the number of sales (73 transactions) over $750,000 in 2017.

Featured Listing – Created by HGTV’s top designers and contractors as the “Home to Win” season 1, and featured as the Home of the Week by the Toronto Star. Sitting on 56 acres with great outdoor living space, and each room is a virtual showpiece. Make sure to watch the drone video, absolutely stunning! https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/18814630/3205-HARWOOD-RD-BALTIMORE-Ontario-K0K1C0

As always, I trust you find the above information useful, and remember, I am never too busy for your referrals!

Sincerely.

Nathan Copeland

C. 905-376-0092

Nathan, Lori & Nate Copeland

Sales Representative

RE/MAX Rouge River Realty Ltd., Brokerage

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